The Hype Cycle

“The Hype Cycle is a high-level model of the trajectory many technologies experience before full adoption by a group, an organization, or society. It hasn’t been demonstrated to exist  scientifically but it can be useful as an abstract tool to discuss the perceived progress of technology.”

In the Hype Cycle, technologies are positioned along a pathway or curve representing a general sentiment of the technology's capability or expectation to meet a need during its various stages over time.

A technology or solution will start on this path after its initial invention in some R&D lab, university campus, garage, or the mind of some inventor. This initial point is called the innovation or Technology Trigger point. As individuals (and the media) learn about the technology, it rapidly climbs the hill or mountain of expectations that it will be, indeed, the “next best thing since sliced bread.”

At the Peak of Inflated Expectations, many are convinced the technology will reverse climate change, cure cancer, and bring about world peace! At this point, many are in a frenzied state of belief that the technology will be the ultimate panacea, with no downsides, side-effects, negative outcomes, and will be faster, better, and cheaper for everyone.

The expectation crash down to the Trough of Disillusionment quickly follows as almost each and every claim was discovered to be a little (or a lot) bloated. Many abandon the technology at this point (including the media) and move onto the “next best thing” currently reaching the peak above them.

A few dedicated souls are left to keep pushing, testing, and experimenting with the “old” technology and climb up the Slope of Enlightenment with the resolve that the technology still has promise to make the world a better place, although not at the levels of the pipe dream at the peak.

At last the beautiful vista at the Plateau of Productivity is reached and the technology is realized, implemented, and embraced. The product or technology is applied and purchased all over the world with significant benefits.

The following figure presents a 2018 version of the Hype Cycle as published by the research and advisory company, Gartner. As you read the technologies going up to the Peak of Inflated expectations, it's likely you've read or heard of some of the big promises those technologies have claimed.

More than likely, you've heard about the technologies on the way down to the Trough of Disillusionment. You may have even tried them yourself and found them lacking for one reason or another. But chances are they'll be back, with or without our help climbing the Slope of Enlightenment, in 5 years, 10 years or even more!

 The design process can often feel like this hype cycle. You might have an initial idea (“I have an idea”), which quickly escalates to a design concept in your own mind where you're willing to quit your job to further develop this concept and invest your entire life savings in the design! “It's Brilliant!” Some people have done this.

Unfortunately, after that first prototype, test, or mathematical check, you feel deflated and rejected (and hopefully not in debt) as the concept is flawed in some way, requires some material like unobtainium to function properly, or needs political or financial support that is impossible to acquire (“Well, that was a complete failure.”). Perhaps you think you wasted your energy, time, and money.  You might be right. But you might be wrong too.

The design itself, though, may still be of value. It may need to be combined with other ideas, applied to a different domain, or “simmer'' for a few years while the people around you catch up and are ready for your big idea (“Maybe if I try it this way...”).

So, climb on to the plateau of productivity! It will be lonelier than the ascent to the peak, but it's where the real value is. “I think this can work!”